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Other Added - The A B Cs of Scenario Planning
Why Thinking Is Too Important To Be Left Only To Management as and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary.In creating "flow manufacturing" or just in time manufacturing the idea at Toyota was to make sure the flow was hardly ever broken or interrupted. After all the idea was to maximize on production and the way to do this was to keep an assembly line moving.For this reason a worker's main responsibility appears to be to work and not to think when they are supposed to be keeping production moving.However a worker on the plant floor has another much more significant role to play other than just “do the work”. They are also expected to be problem solvers and performance improvers.What this means is that when there is a problem on the assembly line, rather than just keep on working for the sake of keeping the assembly line moving, a worker has the power to stop the line. They are then supposed to think of a solution, implement it and then get the line moving again. This greatly limits waste from units being rejected by quality control later and eliminates the need to keep extra material on site to use for the manufacturing of replacement products. This is usually to replace those units that did not pass quality control or were obviously seen to be defective long before they even arrived at quality control.In other words, in lean manufacturing or flow manufacturing the issue of leaving all the thinking to management does not arise. Thinking is in fact considered to be too important a task to be left only to a handful of managers.The results of this kind of thinking speak for itself. It’s applicable in all situations, not just manufacturing.Copyright © 2006 Chuck Yorke - All Rights Reserved What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our r How To Recruit The Best People SCENARIO PLANNINGIn many sectors and industries recruiting good quality staff is a real challenge. For example, a recent survey of UK Finance Directors identified that 64% were finding it difficult to recruit good people. The way in which you tackle recruitment has a big impact on your success at recruiting the best people. Sadly, many organisations have more rigour around petty cash expenditure than one of their biggest investment decisions. So how can you stand out from the crowd?1. Take time to get clear on the type of person you need for the job. In doing this really think about the personal attributes of the ideal candidate. It is pretty easy to address skills gaps but really challenging to change personal attributes.2. Find the most appropriate source for accessing the type of applicants you want. For professional staff it is often worth going directly to a sector or industry specific recruitment consultant rather than to advertise. Similarly on-line sites might be great places for some jobs and not for others.3. If you are using a third party, such as a recruitment consultant to attract candidates, take the time to meet with them and brief them on the business, the role and the ideal candidate4. Consider whether you want to offer candidates the opportunity of an informal discussion about the position before applying. This takes very little time and can save a lot of time for you and the candidate5. Consider the most appropriate way of selecting candidates. Interviews are the traditional way. By adding a presentation or role play you can get a broader view of the candidate. If it is a senior role you might even want to set up an assessment centre6. Take the time to thoroughly prepare for interviews and assessme There are a number of approaches to scenario planning, and they differ greatly based on the people doing the planning and the type of industry the planning is done for. Some of the best examples come from Citibank and Royal Dutch Shell and although the BASIC’s of each are the same the actual scenarios will be very different. Where Shell would be concerned with the Middle East cutting off oil supplies to one political entity or another while Citibank might be more concerned with Japan or the European economy going into a recession. The most important thing to remember is to challenge your assumptions and create a new and hopefully more realistic view of the future from which to begin the strategic planning process. In many companies the entire concept of “strategic planning” has been changed to “scenario planning.” If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to “get it right” but to expand the thought process. Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan. Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary. What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our re What Exactly is Customer Relationship Management? t cutting off oil supplies to one political entity or another while Citibank might be more concerned with Japan or the European economy going into a recession.The defintion of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) that I favor is "CRM is the business strategy that aims to understand, anticipate, manage and personalize the needs of an organization's current and potential customers"From this we can learn that CRM is more than just a piece of software; CRM is a business strategy, one that puts the customer at the heart of the business.“That’s nothing new” I hear you say, and you would be right. Good business people have always understood the relationship between happy customers that come back again and again and creating long term, sustainable profitability.You just have to think of the local shop owner who knew everyone of his customer’s names, birthdays and particular ailments to prove that point. What is new is that there now exists the technology to enable this customer-centricity on a much larger scale.It is said that a successful CRM implementation will allow your Customer Service, Sales and Marketing people (and anyone else in your organization) to have a holistic view of each and everyone of your customers. In theory this will enable them to make quick, informed decisions, create cross selling and up selling opportunities, measure marketing effectiveness and deliver personalized Customer Care.Sound’s great doesn’t it!The History of CRMFollowing on from Enterprise Resource Planning or ERP (the business strategy that promised to automate the “back-office”), the term CRM was first coined in the mid-1990s. CRM in those days referred to the software used to help businesses manage their customer relationships. From sales force automation software (SFA) that focused on customer contact management to integrated knowledge management solutions, these were the earl The most important thing to remember is to challenge your assumptions and create a new and hopefully more realistic view of the future from which to begin the strategic planning process. In many companies the entire concept of “strategic planning” has been changed to “scenario planning.” If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to “get it right” but to expand the thought process. Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan. Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary. What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our r 6 Simple Rules For Staying Out Of Trouble On The Cash Flow Front planning” has been changed to “scenario planning.” If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to “get it right” but to expand the thought process.Here is my list on staying out of trouble on the cash flow front1. Don't spend money you don't have. Till a deal closes and the cheque clears in the bank - it is not money in the bank. So keep an eye out on that number and limit your spending urges to what you have, not what is in the pipeline.2. An uncollected invoice does not count as cash. Customer payments sometimes take 3 - 4 times the time you originally planned for collection. If a customer hasn't paid within the 7 - 10 days originally planned then there is no right estimate of when or if he will pay. In statistics we say that the distribution has no memory and the wait time has no correlation with the amount of time that has already elapsed. He may pay tomorrow or he may not pay at all.3. Stay away from credit cards. You can't build a company on credit card debt. Though its tempting and easy to believe that you can. Much more preferable are stable longer term arrangements like leases, over draft facilities, vendor and employee credit or short term loans (that you can and do pay back) from immediate family. Credit card debit grows on you, is difficult to get rid of, turns into a runaway wreck if you are not careful and for most of us is very expensive. Its like getting gas for you car at 9.00 dollars a gallon because it is right next doors and available versus the 3 or 4 it may cost further down the road if you look for it. Similar to gas it is not the one time purchase at 9 dollars a gallon that kills you. Keep on buying 9 dollar gas for a year and you would probably stop driving and auction your car on ebay. Keep funding your business with credit card debt and you will meet a less cheerful fate.4. Grow at a p Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan. Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary. What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our r First Aid at Work at you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan.All employers have a duty of care to protect the safety and welfare of all employees whilst at work or conducting activities on behalf of their employer.One of the many areas of health and safety which requires attention is first aid and its provisions to enable the protection of employees in the event of an injury or emergency situation. All employers no matter how large or small should take the welfare of the employees very seriously with first aid being one of the highest priorities in protecting their safety.First aid has been proven to be an extremely useful tool when preventing or assisting injury. In the US many states have a programme introduced at school level where students are trained in first aid, this has been proven to have saved many lives and is commended throughout the world as good working practice but unfortunately not all countries such as the US obviously take first aid as being a serious issue which can prevent serious injury and even death.The UK have a legislation requirement named the First Aid at Work stating The Health and Safety Regulations are that an employer has to provide, as a minimum an `appointed persons’ at all times when employees are at work. An appointed person in the case can be a low level first aider or a fully trained First Aider.Appointed persons will need to attend a one day training course to learn areas of first aid such as dealing with low level injuries such as cuts, sprains, heat exhaustion, assisting but not dealing with more serious injuries such as breaks, heart attacks etc.A fully trained first aider at work will consist of completing a four day intensive course including a practical examination. On completion of both the training courses the delegate will receive a Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary. What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our r Adding To The Mix- A Brand Story as and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary.The Key IngredientYou've heard it yourself. He's the life and soul of the place, a grand man altogether. She's the heart of the business, a formidable woman. Sometimes, it seems to me that the more successful hotels or restaurants are those that are closely identified with their larger-than-life owner or founder. In Ireland, the personalities of P.V. Doyle, Myrtle Allen and Paddy Fitzpatrick stand squarely out in front of the places they created. Elsewhere, Conrad Hilton and Heston Blumenthal do the same. Did I say 'closely identified'? Sometimes, in our minds, they are the business. We find it impossible to imagine these establishments without them.In many ways, these characters make the business of branding the hotel or restaurant a simple matter. No need to worry about the tricky question of differentiation for they are one of a kind, outstanding in a field that they've paced out, planted and grown. If you need to know how the brand should behave, just study the owner and watch what he or she does. He is the brand in action, she is the brand made flesh. The story of their lives is your brand manual, each entry a lesson in how to greet a guest, treat a supplier or promote the business.However, whilst it has many obvious attractions, this can be a dangerous strategy. What happens when the defining character passes away or moves on? Who do we look to for direction? The world of business is full of stories of withering decline following the departure of the main man or woman. They leave a gap that cannot easily be filled.So how do we find another way to breathe life into our business and safeguard its future? This was the challenge facing Declan and Bernadette Fagan in early 2005, What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our relationships with our customers and what can we do to position ourselves for whatever you need to accomplish in that eventuality? If you could predict the future you would be telling fortunes instead of working in the distribution industry. So what is this thing called Scenario Planning all about? Scenario planning is just a tool. Like any other management tool it is only valuable if you understand it and put it to use. Scenario planning has progressed to the point of becoming a popular management tool to support and even replace, in some cases, the strategic planning process. It is a useful, practical and uncomplicated way to think about the future. Scenario planning allows you to look at an array of alternative plausible futures (although it is recommended that these alternatives should be limited to two to six maximum). The purpose of scenario planning is not to imminently decide which scenario is correct. Look at each plausible future scenario and examine how prepared your company is for the potential change and consequences. Ideally you should try to establish markers or milestones that may occur in each scenario that would alert you to which scenario is actually unfolding. By knowing in advance due to these pre-determined benchmarks you put yourself ahead of your competition in not only reacting to the events but actually having an outline of a plan in place to take advantage of the situation. To be successful at scenario planning, your scenario planning team and you must be able to suspend your disbeliefs in all possible futures. Remember
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